unimagined futures

Developing a work approach that is adequate to the challenges ahead
a world moving toward new and different futureS

The New Realities (by Peter Drucker)

The realities
- “Next century” is already here
  - Well advanced into it
- Are different
  - Power centers
  - Proof
- The toughest problems we face
  - Problems created by the successes of the past
- Half-forgotten lessons of the past becoming relevant again
  - 19th Century experiences
This book
- Attempts to define … that will be realities for years to come
  - Concerns
  - Issues
  - Controversies
- Focuses on what to do today
  - In contemplation of tomorrow
- Attempts to set the agenda
- Faulted for
Political realities
- The divide
  - Political terra incognita with few familiar landmarks to guide us
  - The (1965-)1973 divide
    - Entered “the next century”
    - Non-events
    - Political slogans
- Organizing political principles
  - No more salvation by society
  - The end of FDR's America
  - Government
  - The Change in politics
- When the Russian Empire is gone
  - The Last Colonial Power
  - The completion of the shift from “European” history to “world” history
  - What it means for the United States
  - North America as a New U.S. Concern
- Now that arms are counterproductive
  - Arms race
  - Arms
  - Army No More School of the Nation
  - Military Aid and Political Malperformance
  - Cutting arms is not enough
  - What is required
    - Something far more difficult than disarmament
    - Reaffirmation of the role and importance of defense in the world’s political system
    - Reaffirmation of the governmental monopoly on arms of destruction
    - A return to defense and arms as the tools rather than the masters of policy
    - Rethinking the entire role and function of
    - A repositioning of the military in the body politic
    - First economic priority
Government and political process
- Government
  - Not the only power center
  - From omnipotent government to privatization
  - What can governments do?
  - The limits of the fiscal state
- Society and polity has become pluralist
  - Developed non-Communist countries
  - Each
    - New and unprecedented way
    - Different way
  - Both are now full of power centers
  - Pose major challenges to
  - New pluralism of society
  - New pluralism of the polity
- The changed demands of political leadership
  - Recent campaigns
  - None of the traditional… fit the new political realities
  - Forces politics and politicians to be “dull”
  - Public distrust of traditional leaders
  - Political motto for the new political realities: “Beware Charisma!”
  - Competent leaders vastly preferable
  - Tremendous political tasks ahead
Economy, ecology, and economics
- Transnational economy
  - The main features, challenges, opportunities
  - Manufacturing is increasingly becoming uncoupled from labor
  - The raw material economy and the industrial economy have become “uncoupled”
  - The economy is becoming less material-intensive
  - From international to transnational
  - No more superpower (Countries or companies)
  - Adversarial trade and reciprocity
  - Protecting the transnational economy
- Transnational ecology
  - The endangered habitat of the human race
  - The crucial environmental needs
- Economic development
  - The successes
  - The Dismal Failures
  - The Policies That Worked
  - The end of the development promise
- Economics
  - Many policies of post WW II have not worked
  - Great progress & productivity
  - Need a new synthesis that simplifies
The new knowledge society
- The post-business (knowledge) society
  - Shift to the knowledge society
  - Shift to the post-business society
  - Management
  - Business
  - Schools of business of management
  - Knowledge workers and business
  - University diploma
  - Workers without college credentials
- Two countercultures
  - “Countercultures”
  - American labor force
  - Labor union
- The information-based organization
  - Typical large organization
    - Large business or government agency
    - 20 years hence
      - 1/2 the levels of management
      - 1/3 the numbers of managers
      - Bear little resemblance to the typical manufacturing company, circa 1950
      - It will be information-based
      - Have little choice but to become information based
- Management as social function and liberal art
  - Mis-managers
    - Ill-prepared tremendous challenges that now confront them
  - Management …
    - A new institution
    - The tremendous challenges that now confront managers
    - Origins & development
    - The new social function - World wide
    - Now embraces entrepreneurship
    - Legitimacy of management
    - What is management?
    - As a liberal art
- The shifting knowledge base
  - Teaching
  - Educational Responsibilities
  - The American School and Its Priorities
  - Learning how to learn
  - Educated person
  - From teaching to learning
  - The New Leaning Technology
  - What is knowledge?
Conclusion: New world view: From analysis to perception
- The mechanical universe
- A new age is born—A new basic civilization came into being
- The social impacts of information
- Organization form and function
- From analysis to perception

Toward tomorrows

Managing in the Next Society (2002); Last section originally published earlier in The Economist (http://economist.com/surveys/displaystory.cfm?story_id=770819)
Post-capitalist Society (1993)
The New Realities (1988)
The Age of Discontinuity (1968)

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