Hillary's negatives
Hillary Clinton's opponents are hyping this bit of conventional wisdom: If she wins the Democratic nomination, her high negative ratings in polls will make it especially difficult for her to win the general election in November 2008.
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But polling experts say that Clinton's negatives - generally somewhere around 45 percent of people tell pollsters they view her unfavorably - may not be politically fatal or even much of a drag.
I agree that her high negative ratings probably won't be fatal. The Republicans are working from such a poor position that beating them should be child's play for whomever the Democratic nominee happens to be, though given the Democrats recent record, that still doesn't guarantee success.
However, the next President doesn't just need to win, they need to be able to re-unite the nation. Hillary can't do that. Her negatives are so high in large part because there is a significant portion of the US population who go into convulsions at the mere mention of the name "Clinton". How many other Democratic candidates are facing these kinds of stories already?
I give political analysis, not financial advice. But sometimes, the two closely merge. So here’s what I think: Hillary Clinton will cause the stock market to crash as her likely election as president approaches.
Hillary says she wants to raise the capital gains tax. Now it’s 15 percent. She might hike it to 30 percent, or she might eliminate it altogether and tax profits from sales of stock or houses as ordinary income at 40 percent.
So what will happen? As Election Day approaches, smart investors will sell their stocks because they will want to pay 15 percent, not 30 or 40 percent. They’ll realize that if they wait, they’ll just have to cough up more in taxes. That will cause stock prices to tank and with them our retirement savings. And that is only the start of the many gifts we’d get if Hillary becomes president. Only the start.
The poster is hardly unbiased, but that's the point. Most Republicans already hate Hillary, even some of those who have left the party. She'd probably still win, but it will be an election like 2004; close, leaving the country divided, and with even many of those voting for her not particularly liking her.
America could do better, though with the major candidate news stories being about Edward's haircut, Hillary's cleavage, and Obama's lapel, doing better will probably be difficult.
