War Drums
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he would demand an explanation from the United States over its military build-up in the Middle East and criticised Washington for "hardline" policies against Iran
From John Robb
Iran: Tick, tick, tick
From Tom Barnett
But here's why I think the Iran-war-sales-job is so real: not just Tel Aviv but also Riyadh pushing the package (both the blood and the treasure).
Think Bush won't do it? Rewatch the Cheney interview with Wolf and remember that he's the adult in the room when that gut decision gets made.
And Sam Gardiner to tell us all what to look for:
The pieces are moving. They’ll be in place by the end of February. The United States will be able to escalate military operations against Iran.
The second carrier strike group leaves the U.S. west coast on Tuesday. It will be joined by naval mine clearing assets from both the United States and the UK. Patriot missile defense systems have also been ordered to deploy to the Gulf.
Maybe as a guard against North Korea seeing operations focused on Iran as a chance to be aggressive, a squadron of F-117 stealth fighters has just been deployed to Korea.
. . .
It is possible the White House strategy is just implementing a strategy to put pressure on Iran on a number of fronts, and this will never amount to anything. On the other hand, if the White House is on a path to strike Iran, we’ll see a few more steps unfold.
First, we know there is a National Security Council staff-led group whose mission is to create outrage in the world against Iran. Just like before Gulf II, this media group will begin to release stories to sell a strike against Iran. Watch for the outrage stuff.
The Patriot missiles going to the GCC states are only part of the missile defense assets. I would expect to see the deployment of some of the European-based missile defense assets to Israel, just as they were before Gulf II.
I would expect deployment of additional USAF fighters into the bases in Iraq, maybe some into Afghanistan.
I think we will read about the deployment of some of the newly arriving Army brigades going into Iraq being deployed to the border with Iran. Their mission will be to guard against any Iranian movements into Iraq.
As one of the last steps before a strike, we’ll see USAF tankers moved to unusual places, like Bulgaria. These will be used to refuel the US-based B-2 bombers on their strike missions into Iran. When that happens, we’ll only be days away from a strike.
More here and here.
The end of February will also be the end of the 60-day period that UN Security Council gave Iran to stop enrichment activities. I'm waiting for the US to send somebody to try and do what Colin Powell did prior to Iraq and give a presentation of the "evidence" the US has about Iran's nuclear program, their involvement in Iraq, support for terror organizations, etc.
Of course, Powell had credibility at the time, which he sacrificed for the Bush Administration. Nobody else they put up will have much chance of convincing anyone outside of the US media. Of course, that's all they really need to start another war.
The order to start killing Iranians in Iraq is part of a ploy to get Iran to do something the US can use as an excuse to go bombing their merry way. It didn't work with Iraq, and it probably won't with iran, but as in the former case, that will just mean they have to turn up the rhetoric and start the war anyway.
The beat goes on, and the rhythm is getting faster.
