More Disturbing Afghan News
While the bulk of the government’s - and the world’s - attention is focused on the insurgency-ridden south, Afghanistan’s northern provinces are becoming increasingly troubled.
Over the past few months, incidents of violence are becoming a regular occurrence in a region previously thought to be relatively stable. Commanders clashed violently in Faryab, leaving several dead, dozens injured, and necessitating the call-out of national troops. A protest in Jowzjan turned bloody, killing ten and wounding many more. A member of parliament was attacked in Samangan, and persistent rumours are circulating that weapons are being distributed in Sar-e-Pul.
“According to our information, some former commanders in Sar-e-Pul province have recommenced their activity,” said Colonel Mir Ali Nadem, who heads the DIAG (Disarmament of Illegal Armed Groups) programme in Sar-e-Pul. “Our intelligence shows that weapons have been distributed to some parties and individuals.”
Although these groups have not yet taken overt action against the government, added Nadem, the distribution of weapons is a serious threat to security. It also compromises the DIAG process, which, over the past two years, has managed to collect a mere 30,000 weapons. While no one has exact figures for how many guns, grenades and other types of military hardware existed in Afghanistan before the DIAG programme was launched in June 2005, the estimates run into the millions.
Illegal or “irresponsible” armed groups, as they are termed by officials, have left a dark legacy in the country. After the fall of the communist-backed Najibullah regime in 1992, the country disintegrated into armed camps belonging to various commanders who governed their fiefdoms with an iron hand. It was, in large part, revulsion at their despotic and corrupt rule that gave rise to the Taleban, who promised to rid the country of the “warlords” and bring some measure of security to the people.
This is not just disturbing in the sense that these groups pose a possible threat to the US-backed government, it is also an indicator that the people are increasingly likely to view that government as illegitimate and are focusing on building up power bases for the next round of a multi-sided civil war.
The other major concern I have seeing this news, is that many of the NATO countries involved in Afghanistan have purposely stayed in the north to avoid having to take part in combat operations. If the north becomes unstable and violent, the trends point to those governments pulling out entirely rather than offering increased support to the US, British, Canadian, and Dutch forces fighting in the south.
If that happens, then the nightmare scenario outlined by senior British generals becomes that much harder to avoid.
