Answering Stupid Questions
After all, I wouldn't be much of a blogger if I didn't have an oversized opinion of my intelligence level, and therefore qualified somehow to explain things to other people, now would I?
I came across this article the other day where Victor David Hanson asks the following:
For those who wish to give up the struggle in Iraq, go home, and stay clear of the Middle East, a final question: What would Mr. Assad in Syria, al Qaeda in Iraq, President Ahmadinejad in Iran, or Hamas and Hezbollah wish us to do — and why?
I assume he’s being facetious, but what the hell, why not pretend he’s actually serious about the question and actually answer it?
To start, as a story I posted earlier pointed out, lumping all of your enemies into a single group is not the most wise of courses. Not only has VDH lumped all sorts of Islamic groups and governments together, he has even added the secular Baathist government of Syria into the mix. One would think a military historian would be wiser about such things.
But let’s take them all one by one. We can start with Hezbollah and Hamas. Frankly, I don’t think they give a shit about what the US does in Iraq. Their focus is Israel, and their only concern with the US is its support of said nation. Since even a withdrawal from Iraq is unlikely to change the US’s support for Israel, I rather doubt they care. Hamas might have been disappointed in losing Saddam as a supporter, but that was over four years ago, and thanks to the instability resulting from the occupation, the oil-soaked regimes of Iran and Saudi Arabia are more than able to increase their support of both groups. Add the increased anti-Americanism that boosts their support base, and I’m pretty sure they’re quite happy with the US continuing to bleed in Iraq.
Al Qaeda in Iraq didn’t even exist before the invasion, and as the recent events in Anbar province have proven, the only reason they survive today is the continued presence of US forces in Iraq. Without the US soldiers to deal with, the Sunnis in Iraq would stop tolerating al Qaeda’s presence and wipe them out.
Although VDH didn’t bother to mention them, al Qaeda outside of Iraq has been very happy with the Iraq Waf. For one,, it has allowed them to rebuild in their home country of Afghanistan and Pakistan thanks to the fact that the US has been highly distracted elsewhere.
Syria has been struggling to deal with the hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees that the Iraq War has caused. As the wingnutoshpere has repeatedly reminded folks, the situation is likely to get even worse if the US leaves, and for that reason alone, Mr. Assad is probably happy to see the US stay where they are. Add to that the fact that he is on the neacon hit list of leaders to be knocked off, and I’m sure he doesn’t mind the US military being bogged down and unable to move on to him.
What Mr. Ahmadinejad thinks isn’t really important, since it’s actually Ayatollah Khamenei who makes all the decisions, but we’ll assume VDH means the Iranian government as a whole.
Like Mr. Assad, they know they’re on the neocon hit list, so keeping the US tied down is in their best interests. Add to that little things like the ascendance of the Iranian-trained religious parties in the “democratically-elected” government of Iraq, the inability of the US to do much about the Iranian nuclear program, and the afore-mentioned rise in oil profits, and I seriously doubt the Iranians are unhappy with the continued US presence in Iraq.
It never cease to amaze me that the supporters of the Iraq War never seem to see that all of America’s major enemies are very happy with the situation there. Of course, if they did see that, they might have to rethink their support of Shrub, and any kind of thinking, but especially that kind, is the last thing they want to do.
