Resolve
A fair number of articles I've read about the recent capture and release of British sailors and marines have said that this was a test of British resolve, and that by not responding with force, the British now look weak. More than a few commentators have compared Blair unfavourably to Margaret Thatcher and the Falklands. Apparently, they figure Blair should have responded to the capture of fifteen military personnel like Maggie did to the conquest of some islands.
It's not a terribly good analogy. For one, the Argentinian invasion was a hell of a lot more provocative than the capture of a few troops in disputed territory. Two, if this was the kind of resolve ordinarily expected of countries when their people are captured, what would they advise Iran to do about the five Iranians captured by the US on diplomatic soil in Irbil a little over two months ago?
There's also the small matter that in the Falklands case, the end-game was easily recognizable; Argentina out of the Falklands. Kind of like the first Gulf War, when the end-game was Iraq out of Kuwait. If the end-game here was to secure the release of the sailors, how would military force have made that more likely? I have the sneaking suspicion that the commentators calling on Britain to be forceful in their response to Iran have a different goal in mind.
The biggest thing I find missing in all this, though, is the state of the British military, and what effect that had on the decisions made. Thatcher basically had the entire British military machine to work with. Her army wasn't stretched thin from being bogged down in two far-off wars. She could afford to gamble. Blair not only has an over-stretched army, but a good chunk of that army is sitting in hostile territory, surrounded by folks friendly to the regime who captured the sailors. Bush called the 15 hostages. They were just the tip of the iceberg. There are thousands of British soldiers (and Americans) who would rapidly be in dire straights should the situation spiral out of control.
So is the West weak? Yeah, I suppose they are, but the reason they're weak now is because of the brave, macho resolve they used in Iraq, tying up their own hands.
