A little math on Florida and Michigan
Since the Clinton campaign keeps harping on about ensuring that Florida and Michigan are counted, (which is pretty rich given that in order to claim the popular vote lead they have to toss out the results of four states that held caucuses), I thought I'd do a bit of calculation on what that might mean for the overall count.
At present, there are 3,253 pledged delegates, which makes 1,627 the number needed to have a majority of them. Going into tonight, Obama has 1,612, meaning he only needs to pick up 15 from the 103 available in order to claim an absolute majority, which is what Obama plans to do tonight since he can get that many if he breaks 30% in Kentucky alone.
The Clinton camp, on the other hand, wants the delegates from Florida and Michigan seated, which adds another 313 pledged delegates to the mix or another 157 needed for Obama to get the majority. The rules committee is meeting on May 31, and I believe it is likely they will come up with some agreement to seat the delegations.
Under the Clintons' preferred scenario, which has about the same likelihood as my marrying Michelle Trachtenberg, the results of the two unsanctioned primary will stand as is, giving Clinton 163 delegates to Obama's 61 since he gets zero from Michigan. That adds 96 delegates to the 15 above before he can claim a majority. Obama's lead going into tonight is 168.
Under a somewhat more realistic scenario, Obama picks up the 26 Florida delegates that would have went to his supporter Edwards, and gets the uncommitted delegates from Michigan, which should number around 51. That bumps his total up to 138, and means he needs a mere 19 more for the majority.
Further, since the rules committee are still likely to impose some kind of punishment on the two states, it is probable that their delegates will be given half-votes as happened on the Republican side. That makes Obama’s maximum possible deficit 48 delegates, and under the more realistic scenario, only 10.
