Hillary as Rocky and a look forward
Given that Hillary has decided to portray herself as the fictional boxing legend Rocky Balboa, Slate has decided to see just how accurate and/or inaccurate the comparison is. Given my history of being a ring participant and my continued love of the sport, it is a metaphor I can't resist, though I prefer real life to fictional characters.
. . . the Clinton-as-Balboa metaphor is deeply flawed. Hillary started out as the favorite, only becoming the underdog when she started losing primaries and caucuses. If anything, she’s more like Apollo Creed, the undisputed champ who didn’t take an upstart opponent seriously.
However there are a few points where the Clinton as Balboa comparison may make sense, though not in way that make Hillary look all that great:
There’s one Rocky scene in particular that gives us a window into Hillary “Balboa” Clinton’s psyche. The night before the big fight, Rocky sits on the edge of his bed and tells his girl Adrian that he can’t beat Creed. He gets in the ring the next day with one goal: He wants to go the distance, to trade jabs with the champ for 15 rounds. He doesn’t care if he wins—he only wants to prove that he can survive the onslaught and do some damage in the process. He keeps on fighting for himself, his fans, and his country. Even his closest advisers couldn’t convince him to get out of the ring. Sound familiar?
One last possible parallel carries some salience: Those who are calling for Clinton’s withdrawal say she should bail because she’s going to hurt Obama. During the climactic fight in Rocky, Balboa does serious damage to Creed. He dodges a Creed jab and punches him twice in the torso, breaking his rib in the process.
Given that after both McCain and Huckabee came out in defense of Obama over the whole Wright imbroglio, Hillary entered the heart of the Vast-Right-Wing-Conspiracy to attack him on it, and the fact that her campaign is continuing to use it in an attempt to sap Obama’s electability, and given her campaign has been attacking Obama over wanting to disenfranchise voters, that bruising metaphor is looking rather relevant.
Of course, I’ve been concerned about Hillary producing some sort of Samson option since mid-February, so I’m somewhat pre-disposed to that idea.
It does make me wonder where things will go from here. Back in early March, Big Tent Democrat said that the two Democratic candidates should prove that are the better candidate against McCain by actually running against McCain instead of tearing each other down. Obama has and is doing that, though I doubt he’s getting any points from BTD on that point. It is also clear that despite a few comforting words about supporting whomever the Democratic nominee might turn out to be, the above campaign tactics show that Hillary hasn’t gotten the memo.
Barring a miracle, Clinton will win Pennsylvania, though probably not by the massive margin she needs, not that it will matter to her or her supporters. I also fully expect some variation of the “kitchen sink” fusillade in the closing days of the Pennsylvania campaign so that she can pad her victory by as much as possible. To go back to the boxing metaphor, it is the equivalent of closing out the round with a couple of flashy combinations in order to sway the judges despite a lackluster performance in the rest of the round. Maybe Tina Fey can write a couple more skits for her on SNL.
That means she stays in until at least the May 6 primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. NC appears solid for Obama. Indiana is less certain, but most polls favour Obama as well. Obama takes another late-round flurry, but probably wins both, wiping out any gains Clinton made in Pennsylvania.
It would be nice if this decided the contest, but a look at the calendar shows that a week from these primaries is the one in West Virginia, which favours Clinton, and the week after that she has another solid state in Kentucky while Obama picks up Oregon. That only leaves Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico. Clinton shouldn’t have too hard a time convincing herself to carry on through all of them, continuing to complain about the Michigan and Florida primaries she once agreed were not to be counted all the while.
Basically, regardless how slim her chances get, it is pretty easy to see Hillary continuing to potshot Obama all the way to the convention in August, wearing both of them down to the point neither is capable of taking on McCain. Unfortunate given he should be eminently beatable thanks to continuing “gaffes” like this on the only issue he’s supposed to have a advantage on.
The only possibility for Obama to end this is if he somehow manages to win Pennsylvania and/or the media starts treating Hillary’s campaign as they did Huckabee’s after Feb. 5th, despite the fact that he did far better in the next several primaries against McCain than she did against Obama. As soon as the myths are punctured and her true chances become apparent, her already shaky campaign finances will likely dry up and with them her capacity to launch further kitchen sink flurries to damage Obama and the Democrats chances in November.
To go back to the boxing metaphor, the Democratic race is beginning to resemble the "controversy" over the De La Hoya-Mosley 2 decision. Those watching through the lens of the HBO's boxing crews heavily-baised coverage thought De La Hoya was robbed, while those watching ringside or with the mute button engaged agreed with the ringside judges in giving the fight to Mosley.
So long as the media continues to portray the Democratic contest as a close race that Hillary has a decent chance of winning, that is the way it will be perceived. If and when the media abandons her, she's toast, which probably explains her campaigns outreach to such paragons of journalistic integrity such as Richard Melon Scaife and FoxNews.
A poor way to do things, I know, but that's the way it is.
