Monday, May 19, 2008

Putin does it again

Recently, there was a bit of a furor over Time making Putin, Person of the Year. I didn't have any issue with the choice, and it is because of moves like this that he's actually earned the title.

Russia's delivery of nuclear fuel to the Bushehr power station makes it unnecessary for Iran to pursue its enrichment program, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

Lavrov, interviewed by the Moscow daily Vremya Novostei, also said any suggestion of "regime change" in Tehran had to be ruled out in discussions on verifying Iran's nuclear program.

"We believe that Iran has no economic need to proceed with its program of uranium enrichment," Lavrov told the daily.

"We are trying to persuade the Iranians that freezing the program is to their advantage as it would immediately lead to talks with all countries of the "six," including the United States."

Such talks, he said, would aim to end any suspicion that Iran had any secret aim to produce nuclear weapons. "Iran's agreement to this proposal is in everyone's interest."

Iran was aware, he said, that should there be any deviation from agreements to build Bushehr under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, "we will freeze our cooperation."


The situation is a win-win for Moscow. They've set up a quite reasonable middle path between the Iranians and the US and put themselves in place right on the forks, where the actions of the two adversaries will be seen as choosing their actions. It reminds me of the brilliant ploy Putin used on missile defence earlier this year. There as here, he maneuvered his opponents into a position where he appeared to be the reasonable and conciliatory one, and left them scrambling to find some manner of continuing towards their goals that didn't appear like a total admission of those goals.

In this situation, Russia has set itself up to continue as a block to US ambitions for regime change in Iran, while at the same time demanding that Iran tie itself more closely to Russia and remain dependent on Russia for its energy needs.

Even if both sides remain obstinate, (which seems likely), Russia comes out looking good for trying to be the peacemaker.

It is the main reason I have always respected Putin. While he may not have the best hand, he is a master strategist who knows how to play it beautifully.

In short, he's fun to watch, particularly when he plays against the diplomatically-challenged Bush administration.