Massacre in Myanmar?
Without any collaboration, it is hard to tell if this story is true or not, (and it has been toned down from when I first read it yesterday), but it is unfortunately within the norm of behaviour for the regime there.
The reports follow claims from a former intelligence officer in Burma's ruling junta that thousands of protesters have been killed and the bodies of hundreds of executed monks have been dumped in the jungle.
Public anger ignited on August 19 after the government increased fuel prices, then shifted into protests led by Buddhist monks against 45 years of military dictatorship.
Soldiers responded last week by opening fire on unarmed demonstrators. The demonstrations have now died down.
. . .
The most senior official to defect so far, Hla Win, said: "Many more people have been killed in recent days than you've heard about. The bodies can be counted in several thousand."
Under such circumstances, it is easy to want to see the military junta overthrown, but as Eric Margolis reminds us, simply overthrowing the strongmen doesn't always make for a good plan.
Myanmar’s central government has been at war for 50 years with 17 ethnic rebel groups seeking secession from the former 14-state Union of Burma created by Imperial Britain, godfather of many of the world’s worst current problems.
Burmans, of Tibetan ethnic origin, form 68% of the population of 57 million. But there are other important, distinct ethnic groups: Shan, the largely Christian Karen, Kachin, Chin, Mon, Wa, and Rakhine, Anglo-Burmese, Indians and Chinese. The largest, Shan, with their Shan State Army, are ethnically close to neighboring Thailand, and in cahoots with the Thai military. Each major ethnic group has its own army and finances itself through smuggling timber, jewels, arms, and drugs.
The military juntas in Rangoon, and its 500,000-man armed forces, know as `Tatmadaw,’ battled these secessionists for decades until the current junta managed to establish uneasy ceasefires with all the major rebel groups.
If the junta were to be replaced by a democratic civilian government led by the gentle Suu Kyi, and military repression ended, it is highly likely Myanmar’s ethnic rebellions would quickly re-ignite. The only force holding Myanmar together is the military and secret police.
. . .
A new democratic government in Yangon-Rangoon that is not tough enough to deal with secessionist regions around its troubled periphery could see Burma fall into internal turmoil and also invite intervention by covetous neighbors.
Likely, as in the Sudan, the situation in Myanmar will continue on without any interventions. Not enough people really care to make a call for action. That can be frustrating, but what's truly frustrating is that inaction on the part of the West may actually be the best option.
