New Afghan Offensive
So NATO is set to launch another major offensive down the Panjwaii valley to "take out" the Taleban. The article is nice enough to reference the previous major offensive led by the Canadians in September called Operation Medusa. I asked when that operation was underway whether or not it was a sign it was time to leave. This new offensive answers my question eloquently.
I'm guessing slightly here, since I haven't read a detailed brief of what the commanders are saying this current mission will actually accomplish, but my guess is that the storyline will be something like this: NATO forces, backed by heavy artillery and airpower, will clear out the area of Taliban forces, and then hand it over to Afghan National Army forces to provide the security that will eventually allow the reconstruction teams in rebuild what we blew up and repair all the other damage from nearly three decades of warfare.
Its actually quite easy for me to predict this particular storyline, because it is the same one used in September for Operation Medusa. The story in September referenced the previous operation in June, which had the same storyline as well. The other article I referenced from William Lind was talking about the same kind of American operations in the same area before the Canadians took over. (Go read it, it's still instructive, which is an unfortunate indication of how little we've learnt.)
Sometime in the late spring or early summer, we'll be reading about the next big offensive to root out the Taliban from the Panjwaii. We have failed on the strategic level and no amount of tactical brilliance by our forces can reverse that. Since it is unlikely that a major strategic shift is even possible, keeping our forces there only delays the inevitable, and possibly makes the coming defeat even worse.
Time for a strategic withdrawal, which is a polite euphemism, I know, but still accurate.
