Northwest Passage a Non-Issue?
Thanks to climate change, the ice cover in the Arctic shrunk to an unprecedented level this summer, leaving the fabled Northwest Passage ice-free along its entire length for a short time, and implicit in that is the promise that its waters will be ice-free more often and for longer periods as the ice cover continues to shrink.
As a result, there has been much greater focus regarding the various claims to the polar regions in recent years, with sovereignty over the Passage being a major bone of contention between Canada and the US in particular. An article I came across recently claims that the war of words over the straight(s) may be wasted effort.
The list of reasons against using the Passage is actually quite impressive. When it was being searched for back in the 16th century, the ships in use at the time could have really made good use of such a shortcut. Modern container ships, on the other hand, are considerably larger and need a great deal more room to maneuver. Room most of the Passage, particularly the most southerly route that opened up this year, doesn't have.
It's too narrow and too shallow. It's mostly uncharted. There are no ports nearby if the ships get into trouble. And floating ice can still pile up in the narrow, shallow channels and block the Passage at random times, which would play havoc with shipping schedules.
All this is true, but even the article notes that it expects increased shipping in the region.
Most analysts do expect increased shipping going into and out of the Arctic to meet growing demand for the remote region's rich store of minerals.
But experts say that does not mean cargo vessels will be crowding through the passage as they seek a short cut.
"There's going to be a lot more people and lot more ships there but it's not going to be the Panama of the north," said Falkingham.
With more people and more shipping, some of the above issues will be dealt with. The waters will increasingly be charted, and any mining operations of import will have to build up port facilities to ship out ore, something our government recently took advantage of.
And most importantly, the ice melt isn't slowing down any time soon. The more open, northerly routes are going to open up in the next several years and likely be consistently ice-free sometime after that. That, I believe, deals with all of the current objections. I wonder if we'll be ready for it.
