Pakistan set to Explode?
Given the large number of developing crisis' out there, you can expect to miss a few of them if they're not covered well. One everybody should be paying attention to, though, is the deteriorating situation in Pakistan, for the simple reason that they have nukes.
On Sunday, John Robb posted the following at Global Guerrillas:
Fareed Farooqui reports from Pakistan on the effects of a minor electricity outage (unintentionally caused by construction activity and exacerbated by load shedding due to insufficient production of power) in Karachi. Here are some examples:
• Vicious rioting broke out Wednesday evening in several parts of Karachi and continued into the night in protest against long spells of power outages.
• Residents of the affected areas came out on to the streets and burnt tires and other materials. In some areas, the protesters broke traffic lights and damaged fast food restaurants by pelting them with stones. The police resorted to shelling and aerial firing to disperse the crowds.
• Riots also took place in various areas of Lyari Town including Aath Chowk and Shah Baig Lane. Protesters besieged a KESC complaint centre near Aath Chowk, and tried to set it on fire, but the police reached there on time.
Pakistani guerrillas haven't yet (fortunately) adopted systems disruption against Pakistan's crowded cities (Baloch guerrillas have focused on the disruption of regional natural gas deliveries). However, given the example above, it appears that Pakistan's legitimacy is so weak (particularly given recent events) that if they did adopt systems disruption, the returns on investment would be exceptional.
And remember that we're talking about a country that has nukes.
Add to that this story from the Asia Times regarding the situation around the battle at the Red Mosque that he linked to yesterday.
Six days into the offensive against the radical Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in Islamabad, Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf was on Monday desperately searching for a way to contain the damage from the bloody confrontation.
Unrest over the clashes between armed students (and possibly foreign militants) inside the mosque and government forces has spread to Pakistan's North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the semi-autonomous tribal areas on the border with Afghanistan. An army division (10,000-20,000 soldiers) has been sent to Swat Valley in NWFP to confront the allies of Lal Masjid as well as pro-Taliban Tehrik-i-Nifaz-Shariat-i-Mohammedi (TNSM) militants. There are also preparations for a massive army operation in the North Waziristan tribal area.
. . .
For the al-Qaeda leadership sitting in the tribal areas, the situation is fast evolving into the promised battle of Khorasan. This includes parts of Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan from where the Prophet Mohammed promised the "end of time" battle would start.
Jihadist circles clearly want to exploit the crisis to boost themselves as major players, and envisage even a share in the power in Islamabad.
The final battle for the mosque is now apparently underway. This is a situation that is going to have to be watched very closely. The repercussions could easily become global if Musharraf were to fall, and those nukes fall into hands more inclined to make use of them.
