Monday, May 19, 2008

Opinion Matters

A few days ago, I came across this interesting story regarding how people’s views are affected by the opinions they hear from others.

The study, carried out by Kimberlee Weaver and colleagues, found we can tell that three different people expressing the same opinion better represents the group than one person expressing the same opinion three times - but not by much.

In fact, if one person in a group repeats the same opinion three times, it has 90% of the effect of three different people in that group expressing the same opinion. When you think about it, that is strange. Indeed, I'm not sure I'd even believe it if I hadn't already read many other psychology studies that point to the illogical and unreasonable ways our minds sometimes work.


When I first read this, I thought the same thing, but upon reflection, it does make sense. If you join a group and somebody spouts some opinion and nobody present disputes it, you tend to believe that everybody agrees with the spokesperson, true or not. At least I won't feel so bad about disputing people's opinion anymore. People should get an accurate read of what people really think.

Where does this effect come from? The authors argue it comes down to memory. Because repetition increases the accessibility of an opinion, we assume it has a high prevalence. In everyday life we are likely to hear the same opinion many times in different places. We then put all these together to judge the general mood of a group. When one person repeats their opinion, we simply over apply the rule.

The theme of this research is something that has been known and used by advertisers and influencers for decades. Familiarity doesn't breed contempt at all, it breeds attraction. Making your voice heard is the only way to let others know what you think. Otherwise they will think you agree with the loudest person.

Similarly, and more worryingly, when an opinion is repeatedly broadcast at us by the same organisation - think of a particular media conglomerate or an advertiser - we're likely to come to believe it represents the general opinion. That's despite the fact it is analogous to the same person repeating themselves over and over again.


This is rather important when you think in terms of media consolidation.  The number of media companies that control the content of television, newspapers, and radio is ever shrinking in North America.  In Canada, there are basically three media conglomerates that control what we see, hear, and read.  If one of them takes a particular editorial position on a significant issue, it is likely you will be exposed to it multiple times, in what appear to be multiple sources, but are in fact a single company line.

Makes the argument against media consolidation all the more relevant, don’t you think?

Tarsands

A pretty decent article on the environmental effects of developing the tarsands in Northern Alberta. A more detailed look at the water issue can be found here.