The Wars Ahead
Let's see, in addition to sending a bunch more troops into the Iraqi quagmire, the US has raided an Iranian consulate in what is technically an act of war, and launched bombing raids and possibly sent special forces troops into Somalia. (That situation is going about as well as can be expected.)
The whole "surge" idea, along with the other troop movements makes one wonder where the US is finding all these guys given the repeated canard that their military is so stretched. Our Defense Minister just hopes that they're not taking any forces out of Afghanistan, to which I would tell him to start paying more attention.
Taking troops from the one war Bush started that I actually agreed with to speed up the losing of another and to possibly start a couple more is about what I would expect of him. It does make me wonder why we continue to put our troops in the line of fire to help him free up troops for other adventures.
Along with the minor increase in force levels in Iraq, another carrier group and Patriot missile batteries are being sent to the Gulf. Those assets would be totally useless against insurgents in Baghdad, which gives a rather broad hint to their actual purpose. The kool-aid drinkers are still looking to start something with Iran.
The consulate raid wasn't enough, but the provocations and propaganda will continue. I would expect some cross-border "hot-pursuit" raids after the arrests of Iranian officials fail to get the response they want. They hope the Iranians will have to respond and give them the excuse for major operations. Hell, they're not even very good at hiding their intentions.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates tried to assure the Senate Armed Services Committee the U.S. military will not widen the war into Iran.
"We believe that we can interrupt these networks that are providing support through actions inside the territory of Iraq and there is no need to attack targets in Iran itself," he said.
But with the future of oil-rich Iraq at stake, the revolutionary leaders of Iran are not likely to back down.
"Since the president has taken the gloves off, I would expect that they would respond by taking the gloves off, too," Indyk says.
Pentagon sources tell CBS News the U.S. military has planned covert cross-border raids into Iran — but so far none has been approved.
They probably figure they can get away with some heavy bombing raids and walk away without too much trouble. Some history lessons might be in order.
Was just ruminating about a history of the Iran-Iraq war that I perused the other day. Convinced that the student revolution left Iran’s oil fields undefended, Saddam Hussein tried and failed to make a quick grab for the border provinces. After some skirmishing Hussein essentially pulled back and hoped that the Mullahs would let bygones be bygones. They didn’t. Iran sent everything it had after Iraq, with or without equipment and training, over and over again. They used waves of teenagers to clear minefields, losing the good part of a generation in the process. The Iranians would have taken a chunk out of Iraq if Hussein had not brought nerve gas weapons to bear. The apparent superiority of Iraq’s forces, the violence of its attacks and the practically genocidal loss of civilian volunteers didn’t seem to discourage them at all.
Of course, nothing like that would happen if the US were to attack Iran. They'd be greeted as liberators with candy and flowers in the streets. Hell, a few bombing runs and the Iranians will overthrow the mullahs all by themselves and invite American companies to come in, take over the oil and natural gas fields, and show them how to set up a democratic government.
The belief in the possibility of a short decisive war appears to be one of the most ancient and dangerous of human illusions. - Robert Lynn
