Northman's Fury

No big surprise here. It's always easier to criticize the actions of others than impose controls on yourself.

When the Conservatives were in opposition, they used Gomery and the Sponsorship Scandal to advance their agenda and sink the Liberal government, and justifiably so in my opinion. Now that Harper is in power, putting the controls in place that would limit the PMO's control is far less attractive.

This is why the Federal Government never gets any more accountable. Power once given never seems to be returned.

So NATO is set to launch another major offensive down the Panjwaii valley to "take out" the Taleban. The article is nice enough to reference the previous major offensive led by the Canadians in September called Operation Medusa. I asked when that operation was underway whether or not it was a sign it was time to leave. This new offensive answers my question eloquently.

I'm guessing slightly here, since I haven't read a detailed brief of what the commanders are saying this current mission will actually accomplish, but my guess is that the storyline will be something like this: NATO forces, backed by heavy artillery and airpower, will clear out the area of Taliban forces, and then hand it over to Afghan National Army forces to provide the security that will eventually allow the reconstruction teams in rebuild what we blew up and repair all the other damage from nearly three decades of warfare.

Its actually quite easy for me to predict this particular storyline, because it is the same one used in September for Operation Medusa. The story in September referenced the previous operation in June, which had the same storyline as well. The other article I referenced from William Lind was talking about the same kind of American operations in the same area before the Canadians took over. (Go read it, it's still instructive, which is an unfortunate indication of how little we've learnt.)

Sometime in the late spring or early summer, we'll be reading about the next big offensive to root out the Taliban from the Panjwaii. We have failed on the strategic level and no amount of tactical brilliance by our forces can reverse that. Since it is unlikely that a major strategic shift is even possible, keeping our forces there only delays the inevitable, and possibly makes the coming defeat even worse.

Time for a strategic withdrawal, which is a polite euphemism, I know, but still accurate.

Stéphane Dion emerged from his stunning convention victory with early signs that his win places the party ahead of the governing Conservatives for the first time since the Liberals' election defeat in January.

The Liberals have moved six percentage points ahead of Stephen Harper's Tories, while a sizable majority of Quebeckers say the Liberals made a good choice, according to the survey conducted by the Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail and CTV.

The poll was taken in the hours after the dramatic convention, where Mr. Dion, teaming up in an alliance with fellow candidate Gerard Kennedy, surged past front-runner Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae to claim the Liberal crown.

It shows that if an election were held today, the Liberals led by Mr. Dion would garner 37 per cent of the vote, compared with 31 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP polled 14 per cent, the Bloc Québécois 11 per cent, and the Green Party 7.

That’s a bit of a surprise to me, and it is still early. Harper’s Conservatives haven’t had the chance to get the attack machine targeted at Dion yet. I’m guessing they, like most, expected to be facing either Rae or Ignatieff. Once they turn their guns on Dion and start painting him as part of the Chretien/Martin/Sponsorship Scandal Liberals, we’ll see how well the lead holds up.

Another article I read mentioned that Dion would have difficulty getting support out West due to the fact that he’s from Quebec. I’m guessing that’s only important if there was some other Liberal candidate that could get support in the West. As it stands, I don’t think a Liberal leader from Quebec is any worse than one from southern Ontario would have been.

More to the point, Dion is a strong federalist, so strong that his supporters are worried it may alienate Quebec voters, while Harper just pushed through a motion giving Quebec nationhood status. As a (at least former) Westerner, I know which position pisses me off more. Whether Western voters will remember that come the next election is debatable, but I know I will.

I was watching the Liberal Leadership Convention yesterday. There were two things I noticed. the first was that Belinda Stronach has dyed her hair. I grant that has little to do with politics, but it was a bit striking when I first saw it.

On a serious note, after the second ballot, when Gerard Kennedy dropped out and backed Dion, basically sealing the deal for him, the CBC crew was interviewing delegates. One of them mentioned that Dion was part of the "old" Liberal Party, and that was why he was doing so well.

Maybe it's just me, but if Canadians were all that impressed with the old Liberal Party, they would still have their old leader, and they wouldn't be in opposition right now. As a result, while I'm not sure if Dion was the Conservative's first choice to run against, I highly doubt they're worried.

Oh well, I have a feeling he's still a better choice than Ignatieff would have been.