Arctic Ice Shrinking Further
Arctic sea ice is expected to retreat to a record low by the end of this summer, scientists have predicted.
. . .
A team of scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the University of Washington, and McGill University, found that "positive feedbacks" were likely to accelerate the decline of the region's ice system.
Sea ice has a bright surface that reflects 80% of the sunlight that strikes it back into space. However, as the ice melts during the summer, more of the dark ocean surface becomes exposed.
Rather than reflecting sunlight, the ocean absorbs 90% of it, causing the waters to warm and increase the rate of melting.
Nothing out of the ordinary with the above story. Over the last few years, such stories have become almost commonplace.
Here's why it worries me. A few days ago, climate scientists unveiled a new ten-year climate model that would take into to effect short-term cycles such as El Nino. Here's what it had to say:
the Hadley Centre researchers said that the influence of natural climatic variations were likely to dampen the effects of emissions from human activities between now and 2009.
But over the decade as a whole, they project the global average temperature in 2014 to be 0.3C warmer than 2004.
Meaning that right now, natural cycles are conspiring to make the climate cooler than it would be normally, and yet despite this, the Arctic sea ice is still shrinking. The positive feedback mechanism is apparently already in action. One wonders how much more rapidly the sea ice will shrink after 2009 when we cycle into a warmer period.
