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Published On: Apr 09, 2009 09:33 AM
Total entries in this category:
Published On: Apr 09, 2009 09:33 AM
You got trouble!
Strike that. WE got
trouble!
Nate Silver over at fivethrityeight.com focuses his mighty statistics crystal ball on gay marriage bans. And someone over at fark made a pretty map. These are Nate's predictions for when gay marriage bans will fall, based on his statistical model, which takes into account: 1) the year in which the amendment was voted on, 2) percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking polls who said that religion was an important part of their lives, and 3) the percentage of white evangelicals in the state. (Note to those folks who still try to make a big deal out of the African-american vote on Prop 8 in CA that it is the percentage of white evangelicals, not black evangelicals, that bumps the model.) (Also note that this doesn't mean these dates are when gay marriage will become legal, only when those amendments are predicted to be rescinded.)
Interestingly after our anti-gay marriage amendment passed, I said that it might be repealed in about 10 years or so, based on nothing but having lived here all my life. Nate has it falling one year earlier, so my completely random guess might be a good one based on his model (or his model might be a good one based on my experience.) Of course, these predictions get less good the further out they're projected, but it will be interesting to see how close his predictions are to how the dominoes actually fall. His model doesn't, for example, take into account the total implosion of the Republican Party.
Still no predictions, however, on the increasing incidence of the installation of pool tables in billiard halls.
Nate Silver over at fivethrityeight.com focuses his mighty statistics crystal ball on gay marriage bans. And someone over at fark made a pretty map. These are Nate's predictions for when gay marriage bans will fall, based on his statistical model, which takes into account: 1) the year in which the amendment was voted on, 2) percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking polls who said that religion was an important part of their lives, and 3) the percentage of white evangelicals in the state. (Note to those folks who still try to make a big deal out of the African-american vote on Prop 8 in CA that it is the percentage of white evangelicals, not black evangelicals, that bumps the model.) (Also note that this doesn't mean these dates are when gay marriage will become legal, only when those amendments are predicted to be rescinded.)
Interestingly after our anti-gay marriage amendment passed, I said that it might be repealed in about 10 years or so, based on nothing but having lived here all my life. Nate has it falling one year earlier, so my completely random guess might be a good one based on his model (or his model might be a good one based on my experience.) Of course, these predictions get less good the further out they're projected, but it will be interesting to see how close his predictions are to how the dominoes actually fall. His model doesn't, for example, take into account the total implosion of the Republican Party.
Still no predictions, however, on the increasing incidence of the installation of pool tables in billiard halls.
Heed the warning before it's too late!
Watch for the tell-tale sign of corruption!
The moment your son leaves the house,
Does he rebuckle his knickerbockers below the knee?
Is there a nicotine stain on his index finger?
A dime novel hidden in the corn crib?
Is he starting to memorize jokes from Capt. Billy's Whiz Bang?
Are certain words creeping into his conversation?
Words like "swell?"
And "so's your old man?"
Well, if so my friends,
Ya got trouble!!!
(note: for the truth behind their lies)
Posted: Thu - April 9, 2009 at 08:23 AM